What is the color of the Russian people
Five to eight / Vladimir Putin: Putin's problem is the color revolution
You have to imagine the whole thing from the point of view of Vladimir Putin. In early summer he extended his possible term of office to 2036 by means of a constitutional coup. The opposition in Russia is paralyzed, its figurehead Alexej Navalny is fighting for his life in the hospital - probably because of poisoning. In the post-Soviet neighborhood, most of the rulers Putin are cradled and sit stably in armchairs. And Ukraine is punished for its insubordinate revolution of 2014 with territorial losses and war. Actually everything from Putin's point of view normalnowhich means "okay" in Russian.
Alexei Navalny: Putin's adversary
Alexei Navalny: His new plan, his old fate
Russia: Alexej Navalny in intensive care - doctors fear for his lifeMore about Alexey Navalny
But it is precisely in this comfortable situation that Alexander Lukashenko lets himself be caught falsifying the election in Belarus and has to deal with an uprising. Annoying for Putin.
The Russian President faces a deep dilemma in Belarus. If he does not help Lukashenko, he would allow the people to force a change of power through an uprising. A color revolution that Putin fears more than anything else in the world. But if he helps Lukashenko, possibly through an intervention, he threatens to lose a Russian-friendly population. Whatever he chooses, it can be wrong.
For Putin, these questions arise regularly, as revolts against post-Soviet rulers are noticeably regular. Apparently the people there are either too demanding or the rulers too incompetent, and there are some indications of the latter. On the basis of his experiences, Putin now has to choose which way to go.
The Armenian Solution: When the Armenians took to the streets in 2018 and swept away the old power in a peaceful rebellion, Putin watched from afar. The "uprising succeeded without breaking a pane", it was really a "velvet revolution". It was not about East or West, for or against Russia, but only about Armenia itself. In the demonstrations, the journalist Nikol Pashinyan was brought to the fore, who did not question the close grown relations with Russia: military aid, Russian troops. And so a revolution occurred without further intervention that left Armenia firmly in the Russian embrace.
The Georgian Solution: In 2003, long-time Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze fell, and Mikhail Saakashvili took the stage. At that time, Putin, who had not been in office for long, did not intervene. But the Georgian Rose Revolution became the model for uprisings in Ukraine and elsewhere. Saakashvili often appeared as an advisor - and sought proximity to the United States. Putin waited until he made a mistake. Saakashvili committed that in 2008 when he attacked breakaway South Ossetia, which was the perfect invitation for Putin to take military action against Georgia. In the end, Saakashvili was severely weakened and had to accept permanent amputations of his country.
The ukrainian Solution: In 2013/14 the Ukrainians demonstrated in the Euromaidan against their corrupt president and for closer relations with the European Union. When Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown, Putin invented a "fascist threat" to Russia and its bases in Crimea - and engulfed Ukraine with war. Ukraine became geopolitical ground zero between Russia and the West; During the long war, Kiev lost the Crimea and parts of the Donbass region. Russia and the West have punished each other with sanctions for this.
Belarus: Protests against Lukashenko
Political podcast: Can Europe's "last dictator" still save himself?
Belarus: It would be terrible to continue to be afraidMore about Belarus
Today Belarus is conspicuously the only post-Soviet country in the south and west of Russia that did not suffer a frozen conflict or loss of territory. In addition to its homogeneity, this is also due to the fact that it never had a serious dispute with Moscow. There are Russian military bases in Belarus, the country has a union treaty with Moscow, the Belarusian economy is oriented towards Russia and depends on its market. That is why the opposition to Lukashenko does not want to turn away from Russia, there are no anti-Russian slogans, they are not concerned with geopolitics.
If Putin were to look at these facts calmly, there would actually be no other clever solution for him in Belarus than the Armenian example. So: help Lukashenko out of the saddle, maybe offer him a house in the Crimea, embrace the new leadership of Belarus. Common sense would dictate that. But there is still paranoia. The panic fear of the color revolution and that somehow western countries could be behind it. The stumbling Lukashenko is trying to convince everyone of this. There are some indications that he intends to use force to suppress the uprising.
And because we don't know whether paranoia rules in Russia or at least ice-cold reason, it is not possible to predict what Putin will ultimately decide on. In any case, violence prevails when dealing with Russian opposition members.
- The sun will explode in April 2018
- Worsened cycling sciatica
- Why you shouldn't take CBD at bedtime
- Is calmly desirable
- Why do so many countries own Antarctica
- How much of the population are millennials
- What are occupational health hazards
- Are you afraid of failure
- Is Indonesia safe for Americans
- How does the brain smell
- There is a lot of poverty in Ukraine
- Arabs hate Jews
- Is the antisocial personality disorder hereditary
- What are some gross things that people do
- What drugs interact with CBD oil
- Which laptop should I buy for CAD
- What is community
- Where can I buy real wholesale iPhones
- What is your mission in life
- What is your most memorable Christmas tradition
- Narcissists hate being ignored
- Is it allowed to watch TikTok in Ramadan?
- What is a branded company
- How many punjabi live in Australia