Can Greece reverse its population decline?
Population growth study predicts a global population decline from 2064
The researchers of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(University of Washington, Seattle, USA) calculated the global population development with the help of data on age-dependent fertility and death rates as well as migration, taking into account the factors education, economic development, geopolitical effects and future demographic changes.
In the reference scenario (95% probability) it was forecast that the world population would peak by 9.73 billion people in 2064 and decrease to 8.79 billion in 2100. The predictions for the five largest countries in terms of population in 2100 are 1.09 billion for India, 791 million for Nigeria, 732 million for China, 336 million for the USA and 248 million for Pakistan. The results also indicate a shift in the age structure in many parts of the world, with 2.37 billion people worldwide being predicted to be over 65 years of age and 1.7 billion being under 20 years of age for the year 2100.
A population decrease of more than 50% from 2017 to 2100 was calculated for 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, and a population decrease of 48% for China. The study shows that it is likely that China will become the largest economy by 2035, although the US will regain this rank in 2098.
The highest population level is forecast for Switzerland by 2048. This analysis hardly deviates from the calculations of the Federal Statistical Office, which predict a population of 10 million for 2010 or, in a low scenario, 9.5 million people in Switzerland. In 2100, the forecast is 8.33 million people.
However, a general reversal of the growth tendencies is clearly forecast. For countries such as Greece, Italy and Portugal, the trend has been declining since 2017.
The researchers interpret the results to mean that persistent trends in women's education levels and access to contraception will accelerate fertility declines and slow population growth. Persistent overall fertility rates below death rates in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical consequences. (hey)
Source of the study
VOLLSET, Stein Emil, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet, 2020.
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