What is the procedure according to CA IPCC

IPCC

The abbreviation "IPCC" stands for I.ntergovernmental Panel on C.limate C.hange (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In German-speaking media, the IPCC is mostly referred to as "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" designated.

The IPCC was founded in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The results of the work are the basis for the international climate negotiations within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In it, the member states reaffirm their intention to prevent "dangerous climate change".

1 tasks

The main task of the IPCC is to provide information

  1. about anthropogenic (man-made) climate change,
  2. about the risks and consequences of climate change,
  3. on adaptation options to climate change and avoidance of dangerous climate change.

The IPCC does not conduct its own research, but rather gathers and evaluates the results of the current scientific, technical and socio-economic literature that is published worldwide on the subject. The evaluations appear in reports ("IPCC Assessment Reports" - "Status Reports"), which are intended to comprehensively represent the current state of research on climate change. These reports appear approximately every six years. So far, four of these progress reports have been published in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007. The fifth report will be published in 2013 (1st volume) and 2014.

2 organization

The IPCC consists of three highly specialized working groups (W.orking Group I - III):

  • The working group I (WG I) deals with scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Topics are:
  1. The climate change of the present, past and future
  2. Causes of Climate Change
  • Working group II (WG II) deals with the sensitivity of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, with the negative and positive consequences of climate change and with adaptation strategies. Topics are:
  1. Physical changes
  2. Biological changes
  3. Economic and social changes
  4. Consequences of climate change in individual regions
  5. Adaptation to Climate Change
  • The working group III (WG III) deals with strategies to mitigate climate change. Topics are:
  1. Trends in greenhouse gas emissions through 2100
  2. Short-term and long-term measures against greenhouse gas emissions
  3. Sustainable development

The IPCC holds plenary sessions once a year. It accepts and approves the IPCC reports, decides on the tasks and work plans of the working groups, on the structure and type of reports, on the IPCC statutes and on the budget. It elects the chairman and the committee.

3 progress reports

Structure of the IPCC reports 2007

Hundreds of scientists are involved in each IPCC report, working in an open, verifiable manner and under effective control procedures. For this reason, IPCC climate reports are generally highly regarded and their statements are considered state of the art on climate change.

In addition to the detailed basic scientific reports (one per working group), each comprising around 1000 pages, appears a so-called Summary for Policy Makers ("Summary for Policymakers"). Above all, it should serve politicians as a basis for decision-making. In contrast to the original report, the formulations in this summary are not chosen by scientists alone, but are also influenced by political representatives of the countries involved. The Summary for Policymakers is therefore an expression of a political consensus. In individual cases, this can lead to defusing the original scientific report. The influence of humans on the climate, for example, was downgraded from "virtually certain" to "very likely" due to the objection of the Chinese government. In addition, one for the main results of all three working groups Synthesis report prepared.

3.1 The fifth assessment report

Approx. 830 authors from all over the world have been named for the 5th assessment report, which will be published in 2013 and 2014, including 36 climate scientists from Germany.[1] Compared to the fourth status report, working group I takes particular account of regional climate changes. Extreme events and disasters are given greater consideration in Working Group II. Working group III will devote a whole chapter to social, economic and ethical aspects of climate change.[2]

The results of the fifth assessment report include:

  • The global mean temperature increased by 0.85 ° C between 1880 and 2012.
  • The global mean sea level rose by about 19 cm between 1901 and 2010.
  • Precipitation increased between 1950 and 2008 in the tropics and mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere; they decreased in the arid regions of the subtropics.
  • There were more heat waves in Europe, Asia and Australia. Heavy rainfall has become more frequent and intense in North America and Europe.

3.2 The fourth assessment report

The fourth assessment report (Fourth Assessment Report, AR4) was published in 2007. Compared to previous reports, this report emphasizes even more the role of humans in connection with proven global warming. In 2007 the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize together with Al Gore for its commitment to creating and disseminating knowledge about anthropogenic climate change.

3.3 The third progress report

The third assessment report (TAR) was published in 2001.

3.4 The second progress report

Second assessment report of the IPCC / Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995

3.5 The first progress report

First IPCC Assessment Report (FAR), 1990

4 special reports

In addition to the status reports, the IPCC also publishes special reports on certain topics such as air traffic and its influence on radiation [3] or for carbon capture and storage[4].

4.1 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

Of particular importance is that Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[5] (Special report on the emission scenarios), which presents the scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions for the 21st century and forms the basis of the 3rd and 4th assessment reports. New scenarios will be developed for the 5th status report.

4.2 Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)

Special report on the development potential of renewable energy sources (May 9, 2011):

4.3 Global Warming of 1.5ºC

See also: 2 degree target

An IPCC special report on the consequences of global warming of 1.5 ° C from pre-industrial levels and associated global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of a strengthening global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

4.4 Climate Change and Land

Special Report on Climate Change and Land Systems (SRCCL)

4.5 The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere (SROCC)

5 Criticism of the IPCC

The work of the IPCC is carried out by a non-commercial global working group, i.e. volunteer experts and scientists. This creates results of the highest quality and independence. So-called "climate skeptics", who deny the anthropogenic influence on the changing climate, try to question the credibility of the working group.

In November 2009, a hacker attack had made part of the e-mail traffic of researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA), who contributed significantly to the IPCC's fourth assessment report. A manipulation of climatic data and conspiracies by climatologists were extracted from the e-mails, and the incident was picked up as a "climategate" by the media. The UEA then commissioned an independent study, which appeared in July 2010. She comes to the conclusion that the climate researchers cannot be accused of either data manipulation or conspiracy, but criticize the insufficient openness in handling the data. In any case, the validity of the IPCC reports was not affected by the behavior of the researchers at the UEA.[6]

From January 2010 errors were discovered in the status report of Working Group II of the IPCC and made public in numerous media reports. The IPCC then commissioned an assessment by the international umbrella organization of the science academies Inter Academy Council (IAC). The review committee consists of 12 renowned experts from different countries and disciplines and delivered a report on the workings of the IPCC at the end of August 2010.[7] It examines less individual errors in the IPCC reports than critically examines the rules and procedures of the IPCC and makes suggestions for improvement. The IAC emphasizes the high quality of the work of the IPCC, but at the same time calls for improvements in the review process, in the transparency towards the public and in the organization.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has completed a report on deficiencies in the regional chapters of Working Group II on behalf of the Dutch Ministry of the Environment.[8] The PBL report focuses on the key findings in the executive summary on the regional impact of global warming. He comes to the conclusion that the 32 central findings of the IPCC do not lose their validity due to the errors contained in the extensive basic report. Overall, the PBL report found three real errors in the regional chapters of the 4th Assessment Report of Working Group II:

  1. the Himalayan glaciers would melt up to 80% by the year 2035 (correct according to the sources is probably the year 2350),
  2. 55% of the area of ​​the Netherlands would be below sea level (correct is 26%; 29% are threatened by flooding of rivers, which adds up to 55%),
  3. on the west coast of Africa, the anchovy fishery would decrease by 50-60% (the source cited by the IPCC speaks of a 50-60% decrease in strong winds and current turbulence in the sea with an impact on the anchovy fishery) .

Only the Himalayan fault is of far-reaching relevance, as several hundred million people depend on the water supply from the glaciers. In addition, a questionable research method of the IPCC becomes visible in this case, which the Inter Academy Council also clearly criticizes. A detailed description of this error and its origin can be found under Glacier Asia. However, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, neither the wrong statement about the Himalayan glaciers nor the other errors and inaccuracies change anything in the validity of the basic statements of the IPCC on the regional consequences of climate change. They are also not included in the summaries for policy makers.

6 individual proofs

7 web links

The fourth status report
  • IPCC website
    • Website (English) of working group I of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC - (The Physical Science Basis)
    • Website (English) of working group II of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC - (Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability)
    • Website (English) of working group III of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC - (Mitigation of climate change)
The fifth assessment report
German language translations / summary
The IPCC

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