Will the social security fund run out?

Despite the billions in returns - the concerns about the AHV are not off the table

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The AHV, IV and EO compensation fund posted the highest return in years. The prospects are still bleak.

Billion return: The investments of AHV, IV and income replacement (EO) earned a lot of money in the last year. The net return was 7.1 percent - this corresponds to a return of two billion Swiss francs. The assets of the compensation fund have therefore grown from CHF 34.8 billion to CHF 36.8 billion. In 2017, the return was higher than it was in eight years; in the previous year it was 3.9 percent.

Thanks to the USA: The booming financial markets of recent years are decisive for the positive figures for social security. Last year they only knew one direction: upwards - not least thanks to the economic recovery in the USA. The billion-dollar assets of AHV, IV and EO are invested with low risk. The equity component is 25 percent - a comparatively low figure. This proportion was enough for a return of two billion francs.

AHV deficit plugged - for one year: The investment profit will be enough to fill the AHV deficit this year. This hole continues to open due to the aging of the population. How big it will be this year is not yet known.

Gloomy prospects: It is unlikely that this positive trend will continue. "After ten years of uninterrupted growth, it is difficult to think that it will go on forever," says Manuel Leuthold, President of Compenswiss, which manages the compensation fund. The stock market crash of the past few days shows how quickly the pendulum can swing in the other direction.

Urgent need for reform: According to Leuthold, the assets of the AHV fund will probably be used up in 2030. The 2020 pension reform, which the voters rejected in September 2017, would have delayed this scenario. Leuthold therefore hopes that a reform or at least individual measures will come as soon as possible.

srf / awp / arnf; hesa

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  • Comment from Rolf Trösch (Rolf T)
    It is probably more expedient to help on site than to invite all those in need to us, Ms. Rub.
    Agree agree to the comment
    1. answer from robert mathis (veritas)
      R. Trösch agrees with Mr. Trösch but not in this style, at home skimpy with your own people in the distant country and let yourself be celebrated ..... at the moment applies to the entire Federal Council.
      Agree agree to the comment
    2. Show answers
  • Comment from Henriette Rub (ehb)
    The same lyre over and over again. At the same time, Mr. Berset can give away many millions abroad. Do we need a new general strike after 100 years to re-create a balance between rich and poor, young and old.
    Agree agree to the comment
  • Comment from Thomas Renner (sigma2)
    Is the fear of the next vote already beginning again? The reserves of the AHV have increased every year over the past two decades (exception when the federal government shifted 5 billion from the AHV to the IV).
    Agree agree to the comment
    1. answer from Ueli Lang (weekly resident)
      That's not true, because in 2015 the return was negative and the fund got smaller. You should also have noticed that 7.1% return on 34.8 billion francs does not result in 36.8 billion francs, but 470 million francs more. They went into the AHV. It is a fact that the fund would have gotten smaller if the return it achieved had been less than 1.3%. Thanks to the stock exchange that things went well this time. The SMI has lost approx. 9% since the beginning of the year!
      Agree agree to the comment
    2. Show answers

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