What are the reasons for China's slowdown

Census in China - Chinese want fewer children - population is growing more slowly

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  • The population of China is growing more slowly than it has been since the 1950s.
  • It increased in the past decade by 5.38 percent to 1.41 billion, as the census, which is taken every ten years, showed.
  • The reason for the slowdown is the falling birth rate.

Statistically, a woman in China has 1.3 children. It is thus at the level of aging societies such as the large industrialized countries Japan and Italy. This is likely to sound the alarm bells in the political leadership, as the world's second largest economy is likely to face an irreversible decline in population - without private households there being able to amass as large fortunes as those in western industrialized nations.

According to the UN, population will peak in 2030

"Population growth will continue to slow in the future," said Ning Jizhe, head of the National Statistics Office, when the results were presented on Tuesday. "China's population will peak in the future, but the exact timing is still uncertain." In 2020, only twelve million births were registered, after 14.65 million in 2019.

The United Nations predicts that the number of people living in mainland China will peak in 2030 before declining.

This is putting pressure on Beijing to take measures to encourage couples to have more children. It was only in 2016 that China abolished the decades-long one-child policy - in the hope of increasing the number of babies. Since then, a two-child policy has been officially represented. At that time, the goal was also set to increase the population to around 1.42 billion by 2020 - which has now been missed.

There is less “threat” of growth and productivity

Falling birth rates and a rapidly aging society put pressure on the working-age population and could affect productivity. "Our projections, based on the numbers before the census, already indicated that the labor force would shrink by 0.5 percent annually through 2030, with a similar impact on the gross domestic product," the analysts from Capital Economics recently wrote.

“Slower growth would make it harder to catch up with the United States economically. And it could also have an impact on China's global reputation. " The Chinese central bank also warned: "Education and technological progress cannot compensate for the decline in the population."

Radio SRF4 News, May 11, 2021, 8:30 a.m.; sda / dpa / acka; Schl

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  • Comment from Alex Schneider (Alex Schneider)
    If these people had access to education and contraception, population growth would decline sharply. Societies would become more stable, young people would have more opportunities for work and education, and the quality of life would increase.
    Despite the enormous dimensions of the problem, public and private development organizations are refusing to integrate sexual education into educational programs and modern contraceptives into health programs, in line with the demands of the UN.
    Agree agree to the comment
  • Comment from Alex Volkart (Lex18)
    A bit pointedly one could say that China is abolishing itself without really wanting to.
    Agree agree to the comment
  • Comment from Mark R. Koller (Mareko)
    After I had memorized an older number of 22 million, in 2020 there will be "only" 12 million Chinese who are also accelerating population growth in China. For these, all infrastructures have to be additionally provided and a 12 million city has to be built out of the ground. Since these are likely to consume more resources than their grandparents' generation, the wear and tear of the world's finite raw materials continues to increase.
    Agree agree to the comment
    1. answer from Beppie Hermann (A Right Green)
      If the ideas competition for the purpose of increasing the birth rate only makes it to 1% + / yr, CHN will have exceeded the 2Mia limit in about 75Y. Also the world population, even with only 1% + / yr, mankind will double in approx. 75Y, the last resources on the altar of their needs have been sacrificed. When all our fellow creatures have died out, water, soil, air and the last spark of humanity have run out, the earth will ruthlessly get rid of us.
      Agree agree to the comment
    2. Show answers

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